The epidemiology of Xylella fastidiosa (Xf) diseases is dependent on a variety of ecological, biotic, and abiotic factors and infection dynamics are influenced by the extensive list of host plants species that can be infected, the plant-host specificity of different Xf genotypes, and the wide range of potential insect vectors, i.e the epidemiology of Xylella-diseases may change dramatically if vector species with different host plant preferences, feeding habits, and dispersal abilities are introduced.

It is also possible that ecological conditions limit the host range and/or virulence of pathogens, which may be ‘released’ in new environments where other vector species and host plants are present. A biologically-detailed process-based (mechanistic) spread models representing the potential expansion of an invasive species from a location of entry, based on its population dynamics and dispersal will be explored.

This approach complements the species distribution model, incorporating the temporal disease dynamics and mechanistic underpinning. The model will be an effective tool for regional risk assessment estimating the potential future spread and dispersal.